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Afghanistan: optimism, Fragile Peace and Foreign Agendas

Paul | 03.04.2004 13:46 | London | Oxford

This year will be a turning point for Afghanistan. This could be upward or downward. With foreign interests as usual taking priority here and increasing instability it does not look good and all the optimism in the country could be dashed.

General Dostum, warlord
General Dostum, warlord


So now the elections are September this year, which comes as no surprise to anyone involved with them. Logistically they were impossible in June. In fact the only reason they are in September is to assist Bush in his re election. There is less and less optimism about the elections. Some top UN people are leaving and moral in the UN is low. Great areas of the country in south and east are no go areas where people will not have the opportunity to register or vote. These are Pashto areas. Pashtuns make up 43% of the population. If most of them are not involved in the election the results will not be very representative of the will of the people and trouble is likely. The elections could easily be a focus of trouble generally. Warlords will expect to have a position in the new government. If they do not then expect trouble. These are not a few troublesome tribal leaders but extremely rich powerful men who individually have more men and arms than the Afghan national army. How can someone be given a high position when are guilty of war crimes. However, Kissinger does come to mind.

Even Heart, known as the safest place in the country and the place most UN workers would like to be posted blew up last week. Ismail Khan the local warlord blames the central government with UN support for his attempted assignation and the killing of his son.

In the north General Dostum is looking for a high position in the new government. Some of the Western press is focusing on his human rights abuses. It will be interesting what comes of this, as apparently there were American special services with Dostum’s men when they committed the atrocities with Taliban locked in containers and mass graves. I do not think they will be too keen to have him talk.

There is a female presidential candidate called Masuda Jalal. The campaign has not begun yet but recently she visited Mazar but was prevented by local officials from talking to students in the university hall. Karzai offered her the vice presidency but she refused. Surprisingly a large number of men support her. Being a woman she does not have blood on her hands and is not controlled by foreign powers, which is her appeal.

Ideally the elections would be postponed until the country is more ready and they are likely to be more inclusive and not likely to lead to violence. If we have to have them in September then they should be only presidential but to save money they will be parliamentary and possibly district as well. Provincial and district boundaries are contested and only the other week a new province was created. A mostly illiterate population living in inaccessible terrain will have difficulty understanding presidential elections let alone parliamentary at the same time. In addition the contested boundaries should be a focus for ethnic conflict. Having them all together might save $60 million but how much do weapons cost.

On a personal level, I was asked to go to Kandahar to try and get Civic Education moving and more people registered. This is far too little too late. Lots of recourses should have been poured into the area a year ago. I agreed to go but subsequently have been offered a job with IOM (International Organisation of Migration), which looks interesting and challenging.

Finally for those who will scream, ‘but it is better than the Taliban time and things have improved’ I agree but that does not mean it is stable and things are not as good as they could be and that some incorrect decisions are being made without the Afghan interest being forefront. The focus is always on the Taliban but the butchery and chaos that came after the defeat of the Russians when the Afghan fractions started fighting each other meant the Taliban’s were initially welcomed as a stabilising force. There is more female education but 99% of women still wear burqas. One group who do not are the Turkmen women who rarely leave their house compound. It is not uncommon for these women to only leave once or twice a year. They are far more oppressed than the women that walk around with burqas. In fact one of the reasons women still wear then is to prevent unwanted male attention. Still commanders may abduct attractive young girls.

I am afraid that all this new optimism might be shattered by the fragile stability and decisions made based on foreign interests.

Paul

Comments

Hide the following 2 comments

useful links

04.04.2004 23:48

Good work Paul, as Afghanistan is hardly ever in the mainstream news it is important that alternative media make sure the issue is kept alive:

Afghan news and useful sources:
 http://freespace.virgin.net/swindon.stopwar/afghanistan.htm

older stories and some analytical pieces:
 http://freespace.virgin.net/swindon.stopwar/afghanistan_allnews.htm

Andy
mail e-mail: Swindon@stopwar.org.uk
- Homepage: http://freespace.virgin.net/swindon.stopwar/index.htm


New Labour's war lies

04.04.2004 23:56

oh I forgot - these are worth remebering:

These are just some of the lies told by New Labour politicians justifying the Blitzkrieg on Afghanistan, pretending this was a humanitarian intervention:

14 October 2001 - John Prescott, the Deputy Prime Minister, said that Britain was determined to "win the peace" in Afghanistan through a massive aid effort and the creation of a democratic, post-Taliban government.Mr Prescott, who was in Moscow for talks on terrorism and the environment, called for the international coalition to be turned into a wider campaign against global poverty once the conflict was over.

05 October 2001 - Jack Straw sent a direct message to the people of Afghanistan promising help from the outside world once the Taliban were overthrown and Osama bin Laden faced justice. In a text broadcast on the BBC World Service, the Foreign Secretary promised generous assistance to provide schools, clinics, roads and secure livelihoods in the future. He said: "Our commitment to the Afghan people is simple and sincere. You have been ill-served by those who made your country a haven for terrorists across the world. … As soon as this stops, the world will work with you to build a better future for you and for your children."

Peter Hain - 06 October 2001 "Let's use this great coalition to fight world poverty. The solidarity shown to the US could promote an end to unilateralism and isolationism. The international community must work together to minimise the suffering of the Afghan people and to ensure them a peaceful, stable and free future in their country. That means helping to rebuild Afghanistan after its terrorist bases have been eliminated, not just with food aid but with development assistance for infrastructure, jobs, hospitals, schools and homes."

Tony Blair 02 October 2001
"With every bit as much thought and planning, we will assemble a humanitarian coalition alongside the military coalition "

Andy Again


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